Market Trend

Between August 25, 2008 to September 5, 2008, the MCI index slumped from 5994.7 to 5555.3, down by another whopping 439.5 points. Since the launch of the MCI index on Jan 1, 2003 by WitsView, the last time the index was near the 5500 level only occurred during 2003. Thus, if we exclude this particular year, the current TFT LCD market confidence level is now lower than all the previous market cycles. With the index 445 points below the 6000 level, chances for it to return above the 6500, which marks a “Fair” confidence level now appears to be less likely. The index’s persisting declines shows that the overall end market demand has not been strongly stimulated by the traditional third quarter. Needless to say, from a more macro level, the global economic slowdown continues to weigh down on markets.

Still, the less severe panel price drops in September and more healthy inventory levels both at the panel or set maker’s end should still more or less provide a boost, albeit a seemingly low one to the MCI index’s near-term development. Between September and October, which marks the preparation period for the year-end sales promotion, WitsView believes there is still a big chance for the MCI index to rise past the 6000 level. But as mentioned earlier, it has become harder now in seeing it break above 6500.