Market Trend

Between September 22, 2008 to October 3, 2008, the MCI index declined from 5882.3.0 to 5714.7, down by 167.6 points. During the past two weeks, the MCI index was indeed able to break past the 20-day average, which as mentioned during last time’s biweekly MCI report, has been a resistance level during the past month or so. Unfortunately, this lasted for less than a week, as the initial unsuccessful $700 financial rescue plan drawn up by the US administration was rejected by the US House of Representative (a revised version was later passed). This once again dragged down global financial markets. As of October 3, the MCI index was 8 points lower than the 20-day average.

WitsView believes if the subsequent passing of the revised $700 financial rescue plan can calm markets to a certain extent, there is still a big chance to see the index rising past the 20-day average again. Traditionally, October marks the panel shipment peak. Thus, despite the global economic slowdown, the MCI index is still more or less being underpinned by the brand vendors/SIs’ preparations for the year-end Christmas sales. It should be noted that after November, the LCD market will once again enter the traditional slow fourth quarter. Concerns of the 4Q08 business environment, or even more long-term speaking, for 2009, will likely offset the MCI’s upward momentum. For the time being, the fluctuations in the MCI index will be a tussle between these two opposing forces.