Market Trend

Between October 20, 2008 to October 31, 2008, the MCI index slumped from 4948.5 to 4421.3, down by 527.2 points. During this period, the MCI index declined to a new historical low point. The previous low was 4553.8, which occurred during May 5, 2003. But on Oct 24, 2008, the MCI index broke past this point, falling to a new low of 4104.4 the following day. Although the index subsequently climbed back to 4421.3 (as of Oct 31, 2008), the sharp index fall reflected the gloomy 4Q08 and beyond market outlook. By looking at the results of the panel makers’ respective 3Q08 performance, their operating profit margins all declined over the previous quarter. Some had already started to post a loss. For 4Q08, they are set to further reduce their glass utilization rates, where the scope will be even more extensive for the Taiwan based players. With no evident catalyst to stimulate the panel market demand for the time being, more MCI declines than increases will be seen. For the following weeks, it is possible to see the index reaching levels even lower than the current new 4104.4 historical low.