Market Trend

Between February 02, 2009 to February 13, 2009, the MCI index surged from 4401.2 to 4720.3, up by 319 points. Despite the index crossing below the 20-day average during 2HJan, signaling the still shaky market outlook, it regained its upward momentum again during the past two weeks. As of February 13, it was now instead 214.9 points above the 20-day average. Although it remains to be seen whether the pressure that the index previously came under can continue to dissipate in the subsequent weeks, the recent strong performance does appear to be justified from a certain standpoint. Price-wise, WitsView’s February panel price survey shows monitor panel prices finally rising, where they were up by 1~3%. Meanwhile, the TV and NB segments remained flat. Coupled by the recent influx of rush orders, the utilization of panel makers are also expected to be higher over 4Q08.

Nevertheless, more time is needed in ascertaining whether the monitor price rise can be a long-term trend, and if the TV and NB portions can follow suit in the near future. In addition, given CMO, CPT and Hannstar’s staggering 4Q08 operating margin losses (CMO:-45.5%; CPT TFT BU: -69.9%; Hannstar: -85%) and CMO stating during its investor conference that it holds a caution 2009 outlook, more positive market activity will be needed for the index to get the required additional push in returning above the symbolic 5000 level.