Market Trend

Following the near 300 point increase in 2HMar, the MCI index surged by another whopping 522.7 points (4942.7→5465.5) between March 30, 2009 to April 10, 2009. It has been quite some time to witness the index rising so sharply in just two weeks. According to WitsView’s latest survey, with panel prices rising by another 1~3% in 1HApr, large-sized panel shipments in Mar09 up by 27.8% MoM, and the panel inventory of the three main applications remaining healthy or at even lower levels during Mar09, it continues to spark optimism about the TFT-LCD industry. Short-term speaking, WitsView believes these recent positive market developments will help further extend the rally currently seen in the MCI index.

Nevertheless, in regards to the end market demand, there is still no concrete sign of notable improvements. Thus, it is still difficult to access whether or not the current global economic turmoil is moderating. As a matter of fact, just last week the US reported that its unemployment rate reached a staggering 26-year high of 8.5% between the Feb09 and Mar09 period. It thus remains to be seen whether the retail sales of the three major applications will correspond to the stronger panel demand now being seen. The nearest time point worthy of observation is China’s Labor Day holidays. Separately, some important insights may also be gathered from the upcoming 1Q09 quarterly performance of panel makers.